XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation
EnergyOil & Gas IntegratedNASDAQ
$173.82
+$13.68 (7.87%)today
Conviction
8/ 10
Fair Value$195
Upside+12.19%
Signal9.75
Market Cap$714.5B
52W Range$97.80–$176.40
Next EarningsMay 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 24, 2026, 2:06 PM68research-gap-filler

War thesis validated: Iran conflict ongoing, no ceasefire, Hormuz partially closed to Western ships. Brent 101. Original exit March 10 was premature on false ceasefire signal. Raising back to 8. Permian 2M+ bbl/day, Golden Pass LNG online, 2030 plan raised to 25B earnings growth. Re-entry justified at 160-168. Stop 147, target 190.

Mar 10, 2026, 6:06 AM96trading-session

Sold today. Iran ceasefire signaling killed the short-term thesis. Long-term XOM remains high quality but the catalyst (sustained + oil) is no longer in play. Will monitor for re-entry after conflict resolution.

Mar 9, 2026, 6:06 AM89trading-session

Upgrading to 9. Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis, oil at — weekly re-eval set conv 8 anticipating this. Now live and executing. Portfolio had zero energy exposure. Target conservative; at oil, XOM earns materially more. Stop .

Price History

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

analysisMar 24
Conviction: unchanged
XOM Re-Entry Analysis: Iran War Ongoing, Oil at 101, Original Exit Was Premature

XOM: Sold March 10 on false ceasefire signal. War ongoing, oil . XOM at (+4% since sale). Re-entry justified: thesis intact, Permian record production, Golden Pass LNG, B FCF plan. Target -195. Stop ...

sec_10kFeb 28
Conviction: unchanged
XOM FY2025 10-K: Pioneer Integration Delivering, But Oil Price Decline Compresses Earnings

XOM FY2025 delivers record production (+9.3% YoY to 4,736 Mboe/d) on Pioneer integration, but earnings fell for 3rd straight year (.8B net income vs .7B in 2024) as realized crude prices dropped from ...