XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas IntegratedNASDAQ

$145.26

-$9.38 (-6.46%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$160.29

Upside+10.35%

Signal5.17

Market Cap$633.9B

52W Range$97.80–$176.41

Next EarningsMay 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Apr 8, 2026, 11:04 AM8→5macro-brief

Mar 24, 2026, 2:06 PM6→8research-gap-filler

Mar 10, 2026, 6:06 AM9→6trading-session

Mar 9, 2026, 6:06 AM8→9trading-session

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Price History

Bull Case

Largest US oil major with 20B+ FCF, Permian/Guyana low-cost growth, Pioneer synergies 3B+.

Bear Case

Oil below 60/bbl compresses FCF; energy transition accelerates demand destruction.

Thesis Breakers

Brent below 55 sustained, ESG divestment wave, Pioneer integration failure

Updated Apr 8

Research Feed

analysisMar 24

Conviction: unchanged

XOM Re-Entry Analysis: Iran War Ongoing, Oil at 101, Original Exit Was Premature

XOM: Sold March 10 on false ceasefire signal. War ongoing, oil . XOM at (+4% since sale). Re-entry justified: thesis intact, Permian record production, Golden Pass LNG, B FCF plan. Target -195. Stop ...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

XOM FY2025 10-K: Pioneer Integration Delivering, But Oil Price Decline Compresses Earnings

XOM FY2025 delivers record production (+9.3% YoY to 4,736 Mboe/d) on Pioneer integration, but earnings fell for 3rd straight year (.8B net income vs .7B in 2024) as realized crude prices dropped from ...