XYL

Xylem Inc.

IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ

$109.54

+$0.85 (0.77%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$157.53

Upside+43.81%

Signal21.91

Market Cap$30.4B

52W Range$100.72–$154.27

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 7:03 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$87.57

Current Price$121.07

Upside / Down-27.7%

P(Undervalued)5.1%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)79.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

5.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.9%/yr

±5.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

24.8%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Xylem water technology; infrastructure replacement cycle; utility capex tailwind.

Bear Case

Municipal budget constraints; project timing variability; integration of Evoqua.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

XYL FY2025 10-K: Water Growth Intact But Backlog Decline Signals 2026 Caution

Strong B revenue (+5.5% YoY) with structural water tailwinds (aging infra, sustainability). Key concern: backlog down 9% to .6B suggests demand softening or project timing shifts. Ongoing Evoqua integ...