DCF P(above current)=5.1% and FV=$88 vs old target $145 — model is near-unanimous that this is overvalued at current price. No clear catalyst or upside edge. Downgrade from 6 to 5: lean avoid.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
5.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
18.9%/yr
±5.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
24.8%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Strong B revenue (+5.5% YoY) with structural water tailwinds (aging infra, sustainability). Key concern: backlog down 9% to .6B suggests demand softening or project timing shifts. Ongoing Evoqua integ...