YUM

Yum! Brands, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$147.95

-$6.11 (-4.13%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$171.92

Upside+16.20%

Signal0

Market Cap$44.7B

52W Range$137.33–$169.39

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$83.51

Current Price$161.78

Upside / Down-48.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)96.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.1%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

13.4%/yr

±3.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Yum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises traditional and non-traditional quick service restaurants in the United States, China, and internationally.

Trailing P/E28.2x

Forward P/E21.0x

P/S5.3x

EPS (TTM)$5.56

Analyst Target$171.92

Analyst Upside16.2%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

YUM 2025 10-K: Mature Franchisor with Macro Headwinds and Execution Risks

Mature franchisor with strong digital transformation (60% sales from digital), but facing macro headwinds (commodity inflation, labor cost pressures, consumer discretionary weakness), China exposure v...