ZBRA

Zebra Technologies Corporation

TechnologyCommunication EquipmentNASDAQ

$243.63

+$1.38 (0.57%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$175

Upside-28.17%

Signal0

Market Cap$10.4B

52W Range$199.05–$352.66

Next EarningsMay 12

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$138.48

Current Price$203.97

Upside / Down-32.1%

P(Undervalued)4.1%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)83.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

4.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

10.2%/yr

±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

13.2%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Zebra Technologies enterprise mobile computing; warehouse automation; RFID/barcode devices.

Bear Case

Enterprise capex caution; supply chain spending slowdown; competition from Honeywell.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K Analysis: Solid Foundation, Elevated Valuation

Quality AIDC leader with market dominance but FY2025 showed margin pressure (gross margin -30bps), EPS decline (-20%), and significant integration risk from $1.3B Elo acquisition. Tax rate headwind (1...