Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
12.7%/yr
±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
12.8%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Zoetis 2025 revenue .35B (U.S. 54%, Intl 45%). Patent cliff 2025-27 (Draxxin, Cerenia), dependent on lifecycle innovation fill. R&D up 2% to M. Companion animals 70% of revenue (resilient); livestock ...