Active Macro Events
6 active events · Last updated May 29, 2026
Oil Price Shock
| S&P 500 | 6,967.38 | +1.18% | Recovering; market wants to go up despite tail risks | | Nasdaq | 23,639.08 | +1.96% | Tech leading; AVGO/AI chip names bid | | Dow | ~48,713 | Mixed | Defensive drag from energy/airlines | | WTI Crude | ~$92.63 | +1.48% | Near $100 on Hormuz blockade re-escalation |...
Fed Policy Shift
| April 14 | PPI / Core PPI (March) — released | **CRITICAL** — signals tariff pass-through acceleration | | April 14–18 | Q1 bank earnings: JPM, GS (done), BAC, C, MS, WFC | **CRITICAL** — credit/markets health check | | April 15 | Multiple Fed speakers (daily cadence all week) | Important — rate h...
Stagflation Risk
| Dow | ~48,713 | Mixed | Defensive drag from energy/airlines | | WTI Crude | ~$92.63 | +1.48% | Near $100 on Hormuz blockade re-escalation | | 10-Yr Treasury | 4.34% | +3bps | Yield pressure from hot CPI & stagflation pricing | | 30-Yr Treasury | 4.87% | -4bps | Approaching 5% psychological thresho...
Recession Signal
| Fed Policy Error | Medium | Rising | Trapped between inflation and growth; April 28-29 FOMC is binary | | Tariff / Trade Escalation | High | Steady | Largest US tax increase since 1993; May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit binary | | Recession Risk | Medium | Rising | JP Morgan flagging; consumer drag buildi...
Credit Market Stress
**Nuclear Renaissance:** ACCELERATING. Iran war crystallizing energy insecurity. Tech giants signing nuclear PPAs. 65 reactors under construction. BWXT backlog compounding. NXE Rook I approaching final approval. Uranium demand structural. **Fed Policy Error:** STEADY. Fed on hold but stagflation tr...
China-Related Risk
| April 30 | March PCE release | Important — Fed's preferred inflation gauge | | May 6 | PTC Q2 FY2026 earnings | Watch | | May 12 | HSIC Q1 earnings | Watch — new CEO transition | | May 14–15 | Trump-Xi summit in Beijing | **CRITICAL** — China tariff binary | | May ~15 | Powell exit / Warsh confirm...