Fed Policy Shift
| April 14 | PPI / Core PPI (March) — released | **CRITICAL** — signals tariff pass-through acceleration | | April 14–18 | Q1 bank earnings: JPM, GS (done), BAC, C, MS, WFC | **CRITICAL** — credit/markets health check | | April 15 | Multiple Fed speakers (daily cadence all week) | Important — rate h...
Portfolio Impact · 8 held positions affected
Conviction Shifts Since Event Start
Apr 14: Thesis de-risked from speculation to execution. CNSC final approval received Mar 5 2026. FID made. Construction begins summer 2026. C$950M equity raise complete. Fully financed — no capital raise risk. 30M lbs/year uranium (~20% global supply) once operational. Iran energy insecurity is a 1-3 year structural tailwind. Upgrading from 7 to 9: execution-stage projects with locked financing and government approval warrant highest conviction tier.
Apr 13: Jefferies upgraded to Buy, PT $85 (April 6). Iran conflict ongoing = near-term defense tailwind. Avg analyst PT $98 (44% Strong Buy, 39% Buy). $14B opportunity in solid rocket motors + hypersonics per Jefferies. Unmanned Systems segment lagging — Valkyrie not materializing until 2027. Stock up 7.8% on upgrade.
Apr 13: Q1 FY2026: revenue +29% YoY to $19.31B, AI revenue +106% to $8.4B. April 7: new Google compute agreement + Anthropic AI supply deal confirmed — $100B+ AI chip pipeline. Morgan Stanley raised PT to $470. Seaport downgrade to Hold (priced in; 40/42 analysts remain Strong Buy). $73B committed AI backlog. CEO guiding $100B+ AI chip revenue FY2027. Conviction maintained.
Apr 15: Mean reversion bounce slower than expected. RSI 31.4 (from 26.4 at entry) but momentum -0.015 negative. Below both MAs. Signal RED 0.271. Downgrading conv 7 to 6. ATR stop trailing from 124.03 to 127.43. Exit: target 145 or momentum deteriorates.
Apr 13: Agilent Technologies life science instruments. Price $115.06. Biotech/pharma instrument demand recovering. China headwinds ongoing. Fair value.
Apr 13: Devon Energy oil & gas. Price $47.79. Permian Basin operations. Oil price volatile. OPEC+ dynamics + tariff macro risk. Commodity exposure = higher uncertainty.
Apr 13: Universal Health Services hospitals. Price $180.78. Hospital volumes + labor cost normalization. Payer mix shift. Behavioral health = growth. Fair value.
Apr 13: Air Force Cloud One modernization contract won. DODNet migration: 8 additional Defense Agencies accelerating. Dropzone AI partnership for SOC capabilities. Entrust Solutions $2.4B acquisition complete — energy infrastructure expansion. YTD -12.4% = macro discount, not thesis. 13 analysts avg Buy, PT $207 (+30% upside from $152). AI-enhanced defense IT = durable growth.
Apr 13: Foundayo (orforglipron) FDA approved April 1, retail pharmacy launch April 9 via Amazon Pharmacy, GoodRx, Ro, WW, LillyDirect. Only oral GLP-1 pill with no food/water restrictions. Phase 3: 27.3lb avg weight loss. 18 analysts Buy consensus. Wall Street avg PT $1,214. March CPI 2.8% relief modest positive. Thesis executing ahead of schedule.
Apr 13: Q1 2026 earnings April 22 — binary event 10 days out. Piper Sandler OW $167, Wells Fargo OW $170 (cut from $172), KBW OP $162. FY2026 EPS guidance $14.95-15.65 (in-line consensus $15.03). 11 analysts avg Buy with PT $166. Life insurance defensive business. Conviction maintained pending earnings.
Apr 13: Trail stop up from 70.17 to 71.33 per ATR. Defensive healthcare distributor, conviction unchanged. CEO transition + KKR pressure ongoing.
Apr 13: Price $126.77, +14% YTD = strong performance. Tariff headwind: 60% imports from China, 30% tariff levy. Trump told WMT to eat tariffs. BUT: defensively positioned, e-commerce gains + membership revenue growing. Analyst consensus Buy with defensive premium. Wait for tariff-driven pullback to $118 for entry.
Apr 13: April 7: NRC engagement begun for new uranium enrichment facility in Erwin, TN for defense nuclear fuels. $174M naval nuclear fuel contract secured. Liburdi GAPCO partnership on advanced nuclear welding. Raised dividend + guidance. Stock $229-233 range. Q1 earnings May 7. Nuclear naval + commercial = structural growth.
All Affected Tickers
Related Catalysts
Macro Risk Landscape
Peace talks collapsed; US Navy blockade formalized April 14; oil near $100; largest supply disruption in IEA history.
Iran war hitting every node in LNG supply chain. Qatar Ras Laffan under threat. WSJ front page. Energy safety net buckling.
Fed study confirms tariffs explain 3.1% core goods inflation; energy shock from Iran layering on top; stagflation trap confirmed.
Tariffs largest US tax increase since 1993 ($1,500/household); May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit is next binary; 50% China tariff threat live.
Diesel and gasoline shock is a direct hit to low-income consumer wallets. DG customer under maximum pressure. Consumer confidence declining. Energy as % of household budget rising sharply.
JP Morgan flagging large sentiment shock risk; consumer drag building from oil near $100 + $1,500 tariff burden; airlines reporting demand softness.
US-Iran kinetic war ongoing; cyber retaliation against critical infrastructure remains a live threat to financial/healthcare systems.
Fed trapped between oil/tariff inflation and growth slowdown; April 28-29 FOMC is the near-term binary; hike language risk real.
China providing diplomatic cover and likely materiel support for Iranian operations. Proxy relationship deepening as war spreads to Gulf states. Complicates US response — any escalation risks broader China confrontation.
50% tariff threat tied to Beijing arms Iran; PNTR revocation investigation underway; May 14-15 summit is near-term binary.
LNG supply shock and European gas spike feeding directly into data center energy cost structure. AI hyperscalers with European exposure (MSFT, GOOGL) facing margin headwinds from power cost escalation. Complicates capex ROI math.