Apr 14: Thesis de-risked from speculation to execution. CNSC final approval received Mar 5 2026. FID made. Construction begins summer 2026. C$950M equity raise complete. Fully financed — no capital raise risk. 30M lbs/year uranium (~20% global supply) once operational. Iran energy insecurity is a 1-3 year structural tailwind. Upgrading from 7 to 9: execution-stage projects with locked financing and government approval warrant highest conviction tier.

XOMExxon Mobil Corporation

8↓5(-3)

2 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 8: Oil dropped 15% to on Iran ceasefire. War premium was primary thesis driver. Trim to realize gains — energy thesis weakened at sub- oil.

DVNDevon Energy Corporation

8↓6(-2)

3 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Devon Energy oil & gas. Price $47.79. Permian Basin operations. Oil price volatile. OPEC+ dynamics + tariff macro risk. Commodity exposure = higher uncertainty.

KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.

9↓7(-2)

8 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Jefferies upgraded to Buy, PT $85 (April 6). Iran conflict ongoing = near-term defense tailwind. Avg analyst PT $98 (44% Strong Buy, 39% Buy). $14B opportunity in solid rocket motors + hypersonics per Jefferies. Unmanned Systems segment lagging — Valkyrie not materializing until 2027. Stock up 7.8% on upgrade.

AVGOBroadcom Inc.

8↑9(+1)

6 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Q1 FY2026: revenue +29% YoY to $19.31B, AI revenue +106% to $8.4B. April 7: new Google compute agreement + Anthropic AI supply deal confirmed — $100B+ AI chip pipeline. Morgan Stanley raised PT to $470. Seaport downgrade to Hold (priced in; 40/42 analysts remain Strong Buy). $73B committed AI backlog. CEO guiding $100B+ AI chip revenue FY2027. Conviction maintained.

MODModine Manufacturing Company

8↓7(-1)

1 conviction update since Apr 13

Apr 13: DOWNGRADE 8→7. Stock ran +93% in 3 months to $241. Analyst consensus PT $223 is NOW BELOW current price — risk/reward has compressed. Global expansion of mission critical thermal solutions announced April 10. Data center revenue on track to double from $1B FY2026 to $2B FY2028. Thesis intact but entry at current levels offers negative analyst-expected return. Wait for pullback.

PTCPTC Inc.

7↓6(-1)

6 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 15: Mean reversion bounce slower than expected. RSI 31.4 (from 26.4 at entry) but momentum -0.015 negative. Below both MAs. Signal RED 0.271. Downgrading conv 7 to 6. ATR stop trailing from 124.03 to 127.43. Exit: target 145 or momentum deteriorates.

HSICHenry Schein, Inc.

8→8

3 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Trail stop up from 70.17 to 71.33 per ATR. Defensive healthcare distributor, conviction unchanged. CEO transition + KKR pressure ongoing.

LLYEli Lilly and Company

9→9

7 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Foundayo (orforglipron) FDA approved April 1, retail pharmacy launch April 9 via Amazon Pharmacy, GoodRx, Ro, WW, LillyDirect. Only oral GLP-1 pill with no food/water restrictions. Phase 3: 27.3lb avg weight loss. 18 analysts Buy consensus. Wall Street avg PT $1,214. March CPI 2.8% relief modest positive. Thesis executing ahead of schedule.

UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc.

6→6

4 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Universal Health Services hospitals. Price $180.78. Hospital volumes + labor cost normalization. Payer mix shift. Behavioral health = growth. Fair value.

TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.

5→5

3 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 7: Downgrade 8→5: RISK-OFF regime exposes consumer discretionary thesis weakness. Live entertainment/sports media vulnerable to confidence shocks. TKO venture execution (hospitality, streaming) unproven. Signal 0.290 below hold threshold, no momentum support. Flagging for exit.

LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.

8→8

2 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Air Force Cloud One modernization contract won. DODNet migration: 8 additional Defense Agencies accelerating. Dropzone AI partnership for SOC capabilities. Entrust Solutions $2.4B acquisition complete — energy infrastructure expansion. YTD -12.4% = macro discount, not thesis. 13 analysts avg Buy, PT $207 (+30% upside from $152). AI-enhanced defense IT = durable growth.

GLGlobe Life Inc.

8→8

2 conviction updates since Apr 7

Apr 13: Q1 2026 earnings April 22 — binary event 10 days out. Piper Sandler OW $167, Wells Fargo OW $170 (cut from $172), KBW OP $162. FY2026 EPS guidance $14.95-15.65 (in-line consensus $15.03). 11 analysts avg Buy with PT $166. Life insurance defensive business. Conviction maintained pending earnings.

METAMeta Platforms, Inc.

8→8

1 conviction update since Apr 13

Apr 13: Price ~$597 (down from $629 prior data, $300B selloff in March). China advertiser revenue risk (~11% of total). California jury found META 70% liable in social media addiction case. HOWEVER: 61 analysts Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell; consensus PT $860 = 44% upside. $115-135B AI capex cycle = infrastructure moat building. Q1 earnings April 29 (17d) = binary catalyst. Anti-downgrade: selloff is price-driven not thesis-driven. Core ad business intact.

WMTWalmart Inc.

8→8

1 conviction update since Apr 13

Apr 13: Price $126.77, +14% YTD = strong performance. Tariff headwind: 60% imports from China, 30% tariff levy. Trump told WMT to eat tariffs. BUT: defensively positioned, e-commerce gains + membership revenue growing. Analyst consensus Buy with defensive premium. Wait for tariff-driven pullback to $118 for entry.

WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company

8→8

1 conviction update since Apr 13

Apr 13: Price at/above entry $280 (current ~$292). 14 analysts Buy, avg PT $368 (+31% upside). FlowStone Partners acquisition + comprehensive insurance solution launch strengthens market position. Cantor cut PT on expense outlook — monitor margin trends. P/E 17.72, dividend yield 1.3%. Risk/consulting services = recession-resilient.

BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.

8→8

1 conviction update since Apr 13

Apr 13: April 7: NRC engagement begun for new uranium enrichment facility in Erwin, TN for defense nuclear fuels. $174M naval nuclear fuel contract secured. Liburdi GAPCO partnership on advanced nuclear welding. Raised dividend + guidance. Stock $229-233 range. Q1 earnings May 7. Nuclear naval + commercial = structural growth.

All Affected Tickers

AVGOBroadcom Inc.HSICHenry Schein, Inc.JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.LLYEli Lilly and Company UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc.TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.DVNDevon Energy Corporation LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.GLGlobe Life Inc.XOMExxon Mobil Corporation METAMeta Platforms, Inc.WMTWalmart Inc.WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company MODModine Manufacturing Company BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.PTCPTC Inc.NXENexGen Energy Ltd.WWDWoodward, Inc.

Related Catalysts

EARNINGSAVGO Q2 FY2026 Earnings

Jun 32d

EARNINGSDVN/Coterra Merger Close (est. Q2)

Jun 3029d

DATALLY Orforglipron FDA Decision (oral GLP-1)

Jun 3029d

DATANXE Rook I Construction Start

Jul 130d

EARNINGSLLY Centessa Acquisition Close (Expected)

Jul 3160d

Macro Risk Landscape

Iran War / Hormuz Closure

High→ rising

Peace talks collapsed; US Navy blockade formalized April 14; oil near $100; largest supply disruption in IEA history.

Stagflation

High→ rising

Fed study confirms tariffs explain 3.1% core goods inflation; energy shock from Iran layering on top; stagflation trap confirmed.

Global LNG/Energy Supply Shock

High→ rising

Iran war hitting every node in LNG supply chain. Qatar Ras Laffan under threat. WSJ front page. Energy safety net buckling.

Tariff / Trade Escalation

Med-High→ steady

Tariffs largest US tax increase since 1993 ($1,500/household); May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit is next binary; 50% China tariff threat live.

China-Iran Proxy Axis

Medium→ rising

China providing diplomatic cover and likely materiel support for Iranian operations. Proxy relationship deepening as war spreads to Gulf states. Complicates US response — any escalation risks broader China confrontation.

Recession Risk

Medium→ rising

JP Morgan flagging large sentiment shock risk; consumer drag building from oil near $100 + $1,500 tariff burden; airlines reporting demand softness.

Fed Policy Error

Medium→ rising

Fed trapped between oil/tariff inflation and growth slowdown; April 28-29 FOMC is the near-term binary; hike language risk real.

Consumer Credit Stress

Medium→ rising

Diesel and gasoline shock is a direct hit to low-income consumer wallets. DG customer under maximum pressure. Consumer confidence declining. Energy as % of household budget rising sharply.

Iran Cyber Escalation

Medium→ steady

US-Iran kinetic war ongoing; cyber retaliation against critical infrastructure remains a live threat to financial/healthcare systems.

China Escalation

Medium→ rising

50% tariff threat tied to Beijing arms Iran; PNTR revocation investigation underway; May 14-15 summit is near-term binary.

AI Infrastructure Energy Costs

Medium→ rising

LNG supply shock and European gas spike feeding directly into data center energy cost structure. AI hyperscalers with European exposure (MSFT, GOOGL) facing margin headwinds from power cost escalation. Complicates capex ROI math.

← All Events Dashboard